Guided by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and organized by the China Society of Automotive Engineers (China-SAE), the *Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0* was recently released after being revised and compiled over 1.5 years by more than 2,000 industry experts. Aligned with global trends of "low-carbon, electrification, and intelligentization," the roadmap outlines seven major goals for China’s automotive industry development through 2040. Over the next 5 to 15 years, new energy vehicles (NEVs) will become mainstream in the automotive market, with unwavering commitment to electrification. By 2040, NEVs are projected to account for over 85% of passenger car sales, of which battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will dominate at 80%.  

Key Targets Include:Carbon Peaking: Automotive industry carbon emissions will peak by 2028—earlier than China’s national carbon neutrality pledge—and drop by over 60% from the peak by 2040.Zero-Accident Mobility: A smart, connected, and NEV-based transportation system will evolve toward "zero accidents, zero casualties, and high efficiency."Full Electrification: NEVs will achieve over 80% market penetration by 2040, accelerating the industry-wide transition to electrification.Intelligent Infrastructure: A mature ecosystem for vehicle-road-cloud-integrated intelligent connected vehicles (ICVs) will emerge, enabling large-scale adoption of high-level autonomous driving technologies.

Specifically, the total carbon emissions of the automotive industry will peak in 2028, ahead of the national carbon - emission reduction commitment. By 2040, the total carbon emissions will decline by over 60% compared to the peak. The transportation system, mainly composed of intelligent and connected new - energy vehicles, will develop towards the goals of "zero accidents, zero casualties, and high efficiency". The penetration rate of new - energy vehicles will reach over 80%, accelerating the full electrification process of the automotive industry. The intelligent and connected vehicle infrastructure ecological system integrating vehicles, roads, and clouds will be mature and sound, and high - level autonomous driving vehicles will be widely applied.

Meanwhile, in the field of automotive technological innovation, there will be a coordinated and integrated development of education, science and technology, and talent. China will become the global origin of original innovation in automotive technology, with its original innovation ability leading the world. A modern automotive industry cluster featuring innovation - led, data - driven, collaborative and efficient, resilient and safe, and low - carbon sustainable development will be established, achieving high - end, intelligent, and green development. The global competitiveness of Chinese automotive brands will be significantly enhanced, and key auto - parts enterprises will be deeply integrated into the global industrial system, enabling China to rank among the world's leading automotive powers.

In response to the "phasing - out theory" of fuel - powered vehicles, the new roadmap proposes that multi - path development for energy conservation and low - carbon should be promoted. In the next 5 to 15 years, internal combustion engines will remain an important power source for vehicles. "By 2040, the sales of passenger cars with internal combustion engines (HEV, PHEV, REEV) will still account for about one - third of the new passenger - car sales. By 2035, traditional - energy passenger cars will be fully hybridized. By 2040, hybrid vehicles will account for over 65% of new traditional - energy commercial vehicles, and the penetration rate of low - carbon and zero - carbon commercial vehicles will reach over 15%." said Zhang Jinhua, the president of the Society of Automotive Engineers of China.

Zhang Jinhua introduced that automotive energy - saving technologies will develop towards diversified power sources, maximized energy efficiency, and intelligent control methods. The iterative upgrading of high - efficiency power systems will drive further breakthroughs in thermal efficiency, with the maximum thermal efficiency of hybrid - specific engines reaching 48%. Zero - carbon fuels and traditional energy sources will complement each other to support the parallel development of a diversified power system. The integrated design of multi - material hybrid structures and the application of new materials will deepen the development of vehicle lightweighting. The empowerment of intelligent technologies will promote the overall dynamic optimization of energy management.

Notably, the new roadmap adds a key indicator of carbon - emission intensity. "By 2040, the average carbon - emission intensity of passenger cars should be reduced by 60% compared to 2024." said Li Kaiguo, the supervisor - general of the Society of Automotive Engineers of China. The scientific nature of this indicator lies in the use of the calorific - value conversion method, which also converts electricity consumption into carbon emissions. "This means that our evaluation of pure - electric vehicles and plug - in hybrid vehicles is no longer based solely on electricity or fuel consumption but is unified on a more ultimate 'carbon' scale."

"The core highlight of the new roadmap is the adherence to the strategy of 'promoting both fuel - powered and electric vehicles', which is consistent with the view of 'equal strength of fuel - powered and electric vehicles' held by the Passenger Car Association and also in line with the world's new energy concept." Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association of the China Automobile Dealers Association, told reporters. In addition to clarifying the penetration rate of new - energy passenger cars, the new roadmap also emphasizes that the application scenarios of new - energy commercial vehicles will expand from the current urban and short - distance scenarios to medium - and long - distance scenarios. By 2040, the penetration rate of new - energy commercial vehicles will reach about 75%. By 2040, the number of fuel - cell vehicles will achieve a step - by - step breakthrough from the current tens of thousands to 100,000 and 1 million, with the overall scale exceeding 4 million.

Moreover, the new roadmap also clarifies the development nodes of multiple key technologies. Among them, all - solid - state batteries are expected to be applied on a small scale in 2030 and are likely to be widely promoted globally by 2035. At that time, the comprehensive performance, cost, and environmental adaptability of the batteries will better meet consumer needs. In the next 5 to 15 years, intelligent and connected vehicles will enter the fast lane of market - oriented development.

Declaration: This article comes from Economic Daily. If copyright issues are involved, please contact us to delete.