According to foreign media reports, analysts said that global gasoline demand growth could halve in 2024 due to the ongoing electrification transition in China and the US, as well as a return to normal global consumption (which had rebounded with a vengeance after the end of the epidemic in 2023), which could affect refiners' profits in the second half of the year.

Gasoline demand could rise by 340,000 bpd to 26.5 million bpd this year, compared with an increase of 700,000 bpd last year, as China is approaching the peak point in transport fuel demand, which has already been exceeded in the United States, consultancy Wood Mackenzie said.

Sushant Gupta, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said: 'Electric vehicles are increasing in popularity in the US and China. Gasoline demand in China will grow by only 10,000 bpd this year due to higher usage of electric vehicles."

Mukesh Sahdev, an analyst at consultancy Rystad Energy, said global gasoline demand in 2024 would be about 26 million b/d, a boost of about 300,000 b/d from demand in 2023, compared with an increase of about 700,000 b/d last year.

China, once a driver of global gasoline demand, will account for more than half of total global electric vehicle sales this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.

Researchers at China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) forecast that gasoline consumption in China, the world's largest importer of crude oil, will grow by about 1.3%, or about 2 million tonnes, to 165.1 million tonnes (3.8 million barrels per day) this year.

Researchers at Sinopec, China's largest refiner, expect gasoline demand in China to rise 1.7%, or about 3 million tonnes, to 182 million tonnes this year.

The IEA estimates that electric cars could account for 45 per cent of sales in China this year, about 25 per cent in Europe and more than 11 per cent in the United States as falling prices spur demand.

By contrast, booming car sales in India and Indonesia, combined with high economic growth and low EV penetration, are driving gasoline demand in both countries. The Indian government estimates that gasoline consumption in India will reach a record 39.2 million tonnes (908,000 barrels per day) in the year ending March 2025, an increase of about 5% compared with 37.2 million tonnes in the year ending March 2024.

US gasoline consumption fell to about 376 million gallons per day (8.94 million barrels per day) in 2023 after hitting a record 392 million gallons in 2018, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Analysts expect US gasoline consumption to be flat year-over-year in 2024.

As a result, analysts at Wood Mackenzie and Rystad said US refining margins are expected to remain under pressure after the peak summer car season.

Gasoline margins in the U.S. and Asia are up 85% this year on expectations of strong summer demand, with gasoline margins of about $29 per barrel of WTI crude on May 1 and 29% per barrel of Brent crude on April 30 at about $13, according to LSEG.

Earlier this year, margins improved due to sporadic refinery shutdowns in Asia and the United States, while higher freight rates due to attacks on Red Sea shipping and Russian energy infrastructure supported the European gasoline market.

Eurobob gasoline was worth about $23 per barrel of Brent crude on 1 May, up from an average of $19.67 in April last year, the data showed.

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